SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869 FOR PARTS OF SWRN AND S-CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 240150Z - 240400Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THIS AREA.

SMALL PORTION OF S-CENTRAL KS REMAINS UNAFFECTED FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...AND MAY HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF MAIN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ARCING SWWD ACROSS RENO/PRATT/KIOWA/FORD COUNTIES FROM MCS
OVER NRN/CENTRAL KS...AND WEST OF SECOND OUTFLOW IS SHIFTING EWD
JUST WEST OF THE ICT AREA.  STORMS ARE INCREASING IN A E-W BAND
NEAR THE NWRN OK/SWRN KS BORDER AND ARE SPREADING NWD INTO THIS
SMALL AREA WHERE SURFACE-BASE INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER 2000 J/KG. 
GIVEN THE FAIRLY STRONG WLY FLOW ON THE DDC EVENING SOUNDING FROM
H7 TO H5...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR IS MODERATE ACROSS THIS AREA. 
THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL...BEFORE STORMS BECOME UNDERCUT FROM THE APPROACHING GUST
FRONTS.

IN ADDITION...SWLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
WRN OK AND SHOULD MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INTO S-CENTRAL KS
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME
ELEVATED LATER THIS EVENING AS IT BECOMES ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE
COLD POOL...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL. 

..EVANS.. 08/24/01