SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1911 FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 292242Z - 300200Z

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AND ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. 
THEREFORE...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST VISIBLE/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. 
WITH TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO.  HOWEVER...AREA
VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL
LIKELY HINDER ORGANIZATION AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSE IN
NATURE.

..REHBEIN.. 08/29/01