SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920 FOR EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSOURI/SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...

VALID 302135Z - 302300Z

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS.  STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70 HAVE YIELDED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE AREA IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE WATCH MAY BE EVOLVING INTO A LARGE HEAVY
RAIN AREA.  THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN A LINE
FROM KIRKSVILLE TO NEAR KANSAS CITY...AND ANOTHER STRONG LINE WAS
NOTED FROM SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY WESTWARD TO NEAR TOPEKA.  THE
LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY
WEAK...WITH SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS BELOW 25 KFT.  THE STRENGTH
OF THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE
WEAK FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..REHBEIN.. 08/30/01