SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1923 FOR LOWER MICHIGAN/EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 310104Z - 310400Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  A WATCH
COULD BE NEEDED IF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.

LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE LOWER PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY...AND 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
ALPENA AND DETROIT INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND MID LEVEL
FLOW INCREASING TO MORE THAN 40 KNOTS.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS...THE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.  IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...A WATCH COULD
BE NEEDED.

..REHBEIN.. 08/31/01