SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013 FOR NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 162355Z - 170200Z

LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH NERN KS AND POSSIBLY
INTO EXTREME NWRN MO DURING NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED SINCE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN DURATION AND
COVERAGE. 

CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL CONTINUES ESEWD
THROUGH NERN KS AT AROUND 30 KT. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A
ZONE OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF E-W FRONT ACROSS
NRN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY. STORMS HAVE SHOWN A
RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND MAY BE NEAR SURFACE BASED AS THEY
APPROACH THE WARMER MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NERN KS WHERE ML
CAPES ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG. THE SUPERCELL APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING
A TRANSITION INTO A BOW ECHO OVER NEMAHA COUNTY AND IS LIKELY
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE MO RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE MARGINAL. 

..DIAL.. 09/16/01