SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014 FOR ERN CO/XTRM NERN NM/WRN OK PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 171856Z - 172100Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COLORADO IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...THEN SPREAD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  A WEATHER WATCH IS POSSIBLE. 

INSOLATION HAS BEEN STRONG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS FROM ABOUT DENVER ON SOUTH...RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF ABOUT
1000 J/KG.  WITH SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...MOIST
EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO.  

WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 85 KNOT 250 MB JET APPROACHING AREA...QG-
FORCING WILL BE STRONG INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THUS...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY ENCOUNTER HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE FOR
SUPERCELLS...SO LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED.  STRATUS SHIELD NORTH OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
SOMEWHAT...BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UVVS. 

..CRAVEN.. 09/17/01