SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025 FOR E CENTRAL MO...W CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 182252Z - 190100Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT
JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW.  ALTHOUGH THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY
FOCUSED...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...AND WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

100 MB MLCAPES ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG...IN POOR LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT.  AREA VWP AND PROFILERS SHOW MARGINAL FLOW
THROUGH MID LEVELS...WITH 60-70 KT UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW.  IF THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT...ISOLATED...BRIEF
TORNADOES MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HRS BEFORE
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AS IT MOVES EWD.  BEST AREA APPEARS
TO BE AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BEST.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS NERN MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL AS WELL...WHICH WOULD INDICATE
BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL.   

..JEWELL.. 09/18/01