SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050 FOR SRN AND ERN NEB INTO NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 220711Z - 220900Z

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SRN/ERN NEB
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SCNTRL NEB FROM
WEBSTER COUNTY NNWWD INTO KEARNEY/ADAMS COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT NWD INTO ERN BUFFALO COUNTY.  REFLECTIVITIES HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF OLU AND OFK.  THESE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A 35-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WRN KS INTO
SRN NEB.  SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN NEB
INTO CENTRAL KS WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S/ SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  06Z RUC SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND VEER TO THE SW...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR LIFT OVER SRN/ERN NEB INTO NRN
KS.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES 7-8 C/KM EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT...STORMS WILL HAVE
A HIGH POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. 
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  

..PETERS.. 09/22/01