SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126 FOR WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769...

VALID 102157Z - 102300Z

VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONVERGING
AROUND THE MAF AREA.  THE FIRST BOUNDARY ARCED FROM CALLAHAN-COKE-
MIDLAND COUNTIES...WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM MAF
INTO EXTREME SERN NM.  RADAR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM MIDLAND
AND DYESS AFB SHOW THAT MASS CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES...WITH STRONGER STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IN THE COOL AIR.  QUESTION REMAINS ON WHETHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN NM WILL INCREASE MASS CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
SURFACE BASED TSTMS LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF MAF-SJT REGION.  IF
THIS OCCURS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR. 
HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF MAF AND NORTH OF SJT.  

..RACY.. 10/10/01