SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2371 FOR...EXTREME NERN SC/SERN NC...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL/HEAVY RAIN...

VALID 102345Z - 110300Z

A FEW ROTATING TSTMS MAY APPROACH THE COAST OF NERN SC/SERN NC OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NEEDED TO
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE TO WARRANT A WATCH. AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

INTENSE COASTAL FRONT WAS ALIGNED ALONG THE SC/ERN NC COAST ATTM
WITH 1017 MB MESOLOW SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR DATA
BETWEEN CHS AND MYR. FOLLY BEACH OBSERVATION...FBIS1 AT 22Z
INDICATED HOW CLOSE THE WARMER MARITIME AIRMASS WAS TO SHORE AS AN
EAST WIND BOOSTED THE DEWPOINT TO 66F AT THAT LOCATION. AFTER
PASSAGE OF THE MESOLOW THE WIND SHIFTED BACK TO NNW. VERY STRONG
VERTICAL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
AHEAD OF THE MESOLOW WAS RESULTING IN SURFACE-3KM SRH FAVORABLE FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
RADAR DATA MOVING NNWWD TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WERE MERGING WITH THE
LARGER SCALE MESOLOW CIRCULATION AND THAT STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE COPIOUS RAIN ACROSS ERN
GEORGETOWN AND HORRY COUNTIES...AND THE CAPE FEAR REGION...OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE RAIN FALLING INTO A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AREAS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ANY SEVERE THREAT CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND PERHAPS
A SMALL REGION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

..CARBIN.. 12/10/01