SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2391 FOR MUCH OF AL AND A SMALL PART OF
SRN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 848...

VALID 140529Z - 140800Z

LATEST INSTABILITY ANALYSES INDICATE VERY LITTLE MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE
/MUCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG / OUTSIDE OF SRN AL/SRN MS.  EVEN NEARER
THE GULF...MUCAPES ARE REMAINING IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...THOUGH PROFILES
ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL.  SUBTLE WARM FRONT IS
SLOWLY LIFTING NWD INTO SRN AL AND APPEARS TO BE INTERSECTING THE
SQUALL LINE OVER GREEN CO/MS...WHERE INFLECTION IN THE LINE IS
PERSISTING.  EXPECT SMALL BOW ECHOES AND A FEW SUPERCELLS TO
PERSIST WITHIN THIS LINE OVER SRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AL FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.  

THOUGH A NARROW LINE OF STRONGER REFLECTIVITY IS PERSISTING INTO
NRN AL...THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT
INTENSE CONVECTION AS THIS LINE OF STORMS SHIFTS EWD OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS VWP/S INDICATE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

..EVANS.. 12/14/01