SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088 FOR SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH PORTIONS
OF WRN/CNTRL OK AND EXTREME SRN KS
CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION...

VALID 050817Z - 051100Z

PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CHANGE TO MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL
OK DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AN HOUR.

UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD
INTO NM AND W TX...DISPLACING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND MAINTAINING FEED OF MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NWD EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. THE 00Z NORMAN
SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH A WET BULB
PROFILE MOSTLY BELOW 0C. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CURRENTLY FROM THE SRN
TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO NEAR ENID OK SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD NEXT
FEW HOURS AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES...RESULTING IN WET BULB
COOLING AND LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS. THE TX LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ONLY MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING...
AND RICHER MOISTURE IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE S ALONG THE TX
COAST. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL PRECIPITATION RATES.

..DIAL.. 02/05/02