SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117 FOR SERN TX AND SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

VALID 011042Z - 011300Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER
SERN TX INTO SWRN LA.  ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL OVER SERN TX AND INTO SWRN LA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW. 

SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE TX COAST FROM 20
SE GLS TO JUST WEST OF CRP/BRO...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN WARM
SECTOR IN THE LOWER 60S.  VWP DATA SHOWS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN WITH A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AT 45 KT
ADVECTING THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE WRN GULF NWD INTO ERN
TX/WRN LA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE MORNING.  THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THESE STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8.5 TO
10 KFT. 

..PETERS.. 03/01/02