SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316 FOR S-CENTRAL AND SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
VALID 031811Z - 032130Z
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD
ACROSS S-CENTRAL AND SRN FL. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED
WITH STRONGER STORMS. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
CONVECTION AT 03/18Z IS FOCUSED ALONG MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING
SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND WEST COAST SEABREEZE MOVING INLAND FROM
40 SW AGR TO 25 SE FMY. AIR MASS ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF S-
CENTRAL AND SRN FL HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 100MB MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL AND WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FOCUSED
ALONG ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES. LOOK FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP SWD TOWARD THE WRN EVERGLADES ALONG SEABREEZE FRONT AND
SEWD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH 03/21Z. AMPLE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT AND HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL AND ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. THE SFC-6KM
SHEAR IS ONLY 25-30 KT FROM TBW SWD BASED ON LOCAL VAD WIND
PROFILES. THIS SUGGESTS INDIVIDUAL STORMS/ UPDRAFTS WILL BE RATHER
SHORT-LIVED AND LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ALSO KEEP
COVERAGE OF DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS RATHER ISOLATED.
..BANACOS.. 04/03/02
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