SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334 FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
VALID 081703Z - 082000Z
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO MARGINAL NATURE/LIMITED
COVERAGE OF THREAT.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED INCREASING TRENDS IN
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN OK IN A REGION OF LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. 12Z SOUNDING FROM OUN INDICATED 7.5 TO 8 DEG C 850-
500 MB LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 700 J/KG MUCAPE. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE...EXPECT CONVECTION OVER NRN OK TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AS THE MAIN VORT CENTER MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TOWARDS REGION OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER NERN
TX...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OK. COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ESEWD
AROUND 10 KTS.
..CROSBIE.. 04/08/02
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