SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345 FOR SCNTRL OK INTO NWRN/NCNTRL TX
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...
   
   VALID 121612Z - 121800Z
   
   ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN-SCNTRL OK ATTM.  HOWEVER...IT
   APPEARS THE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN STEPHENS COUNTY COULD BE
   MORE SURFACE BASED.  MESONET DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   FROM JUST SOUTH OF ADA TO BETWEEN SPS-FDR WITH UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING
   ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  AIR MASS ACROSS THE RED RIVER
   COUNTIES INTO NWRN/NCNTRL TX IS BEGINNING TO WARM/DESTABILIZE WITH
   TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S.  WITH ANVIL DEBRIS BEING SHUNTED ESE
   INTO NERN TX...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR.  MODIFYING THE
   12 UTC FWD SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE
   CINH.  THUS...TSTMS SHOULD THRIVE/DEVELOP FARTHER SEWD INTO NCNTRL
   TX/SCNTRL OK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADM-GAINSVILLE-DUA REGIONS. 
   
   VICI PROFILER DEPICTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING WITH TIME AS THE
   UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD ACROSS OK.  SRN PERIPHERY OF
   THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL GRAZE NRN TX AND GIVEN FAVORABLE
   STORM RELATIVE FLOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
   REMAINDER OF NWRN-NCNTRL TX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
   HAIL.  UPCOMING 1630 UTC OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS IDEA IN THE HAIL
   PROBABILITIES.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/12/02