SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633 FOR ..S-CENTRAL TX..
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 022316Z - 030200Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WEST OF SAT MAY PERSIST FOR 1-2 HOURS. 
   HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
   WW.
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR
   OVER BANDERA COUNTY TX.  STORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE QUASI-
   STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SHV.  AIRMASS
   EAST OF FRONT IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
   SBCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. 
   
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
   /0-6KM SHEAR OVER 60 KNOTS/.  THIS INDICATES THAT STORM MAY REMAIN
   SEVERE FOR 1-2 HOURS WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.  DEEPLY MIXED
   LAYERS IN INFLOW REGION S OF BOUNDARY SUGGEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WIND AS WELL FROM MOST INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE
   FORCING IN THIS REGION IS QUITE WEAK...SUGGESTING THAT ACTIVITY
   WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND VERY ISOLATED.  UNLESS MORE STORMS
   CAN DEVELOP...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 
   
   ..HART.. 05/02/02