SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663 FOR ERN NM / TX AND OK PANHANDLES /
   SWRN KS
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 051901Z - 052100Z
   
   WW MAY BE REQUIRED FROM E CNTRL NM NNEWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/
   OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS.
   
   VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD OVER WRN TX INTO
   THE TX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST WITH CUMULUS
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS FROM 25 NW CVS TO
   NEAR DHT TO 35 NW LBL.  AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 100 MB MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-
   2000 J/KG.  PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRY
   LINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
   FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  DESPITE MID-
   UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...50 KT SWLY 500 MB FLOW FROM CENTRAL NM INTO WRN OK
   COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE AREA OF
   CONCERN WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. 
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/05/02