SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995 FOR NRN IND/SRN MI/NRN OH
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
   
   VALID 031548Z - 031900Z
   
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   PRIMARY FORCING FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER THE SOUTHERN
   GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED 50+ KT JET STREAK...WHICH IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
   AND MIGRATE EASTWARD AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT LATEST ETA MODEL RUN IN
   SUGGESTING SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE ERIE/NORTHEASTERN OHIO
   INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY 04/00Z.  MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
   PROGRESS WITH UPPER SYSTEM AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
   WEAKER CAPE ENVIRONMENT NORTHEAST OF SURFACE FRONT...WHICH AT 15Z
   CURVED FROM NORTH OF THE LAFAYETTE/MUNCIE IND AREAS INTO SOUTHWEST
   OHIO... JUST EAST OF CINCINNATI.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL RIDGING/WARMING MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES WILL CAP INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR
   FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.  HOWEVER...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
   ON 2O KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIKELY WILL SUPPORT EAST/WEST
   BAND OF CONVECTION...TRAILING TO WEST OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER...ON NORTHERN EDGE OF CAP NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
   MICHIGAN BORDER.  FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND CAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG...IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS...WITH
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO BECOMING A THREAT WITH TRAINING CONVECTION
   THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/03/02