SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998 FOR ERN CO/SE WY/NEB PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
VALID 031923Z - 032200Z
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/INCREASED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...WHERE AIR MASS
REMAINS MOIST IN WAKE OF SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE DEW POINTS EAST OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 50S...AND 18Z RAOB FROM
DENVER SUGGESTS THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE/SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT
AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS
MIGRATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. GIVEN INSTABILITY...LOW
FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO LEVELS AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TAKES ON AN INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT.
..KERR.. 06/03/02
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