SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029 FOR CNTRL/ERN OH...CNTRL/NRN
   PA/...SRN NY
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 051715Z - 051900Z
   
   PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND ARE BECOMING FOCAL
   POINTS FOR DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DAYTIME HEATING
   CONTRIBUTES TO DESTABILIZATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW
   POINTS NEAR 70F.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CAPE NOW ON THE ORDER
   OF 2000 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA...IN THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE...AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY
   CURVING ROUGHLY FROM THE MANSFIELD OH AREA TO INTERSECTION WITH
   FRONT EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS.  
   
   AS BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES IN BASE OF EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER
   TROUGH SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
   TH UPPER OHIO VALLEY...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT A SLOW INCREASE IN
   THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL...AS
   DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASES.  
   
   ..KERR.. 06/05/02