SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085 FOR...ERN NY AND WRN/CNTRL NEW
   ENGLAND...
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 112033Z - 110000Z
   
   AREAS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   INCREASING SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL. WHILE STORM INTENSIFICATION HAS
   BEEN SLOW TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
   CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INTO
   THE EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT.
   
   WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS APPARENTLY BEEN LIMITED BY WEAK
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES OF 85-90F AND DEW
   POINTS OF 65-70F WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG
   ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NERN NY
   SEWD INTO SRN NH AND ERN MA. CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS APPEARS TO
   BE MOVING ESEWD TOWARD JEFFERSON AND ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES FROM SRN
   ONTARIO ATTM AND MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE ALONG THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS VT/NH...AND PERHAPS ALONG WEAK SURFACE WIND
   SHIFT AXIS MOVING TOWARD THE CT RIVER VALLEY OF MA/CT ATTM. THIS
   SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z ETA AND RUC FCSTS THROUGH 00Z.
   GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT...A FEW OF
   THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. 
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/11/02