SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096 FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/
   NORTHEASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL/HEAVY RAINFALL...
   
   VALID 121637Z - 122000Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
   CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  IF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
   ORGANIZATION IS NOTED...WE ARE MONITORING THIS ARE FOR A POSSIBLE
   WEATHER WATCH.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
   NORTHWEST KANSAS.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   NEAR 70.  CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME
   SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY IS THINNING/MOVING EASTWARD ALLOWING STRONG HEATING TO
   COMMENCE.  THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   ACROSS THE REGION.  MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
   FAVORABLY LOW FOR THE PRODUCTION OF SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
   ACTIVITY.  THE STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THERE
   WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS.
   
   SOUNDINGS...VAD WIND PROFILES...AND PROFILER DATA ALL SHOW THE
   PRESENCE OF DEEP WESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE.  STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY MOVE IN AN EASTERLY
   DIRECTION ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL
   MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER
   THE SAME AREAS.  GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...
   SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
   RAINFALL /ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR/ FOR
   A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME.
   
   ..REHBEIN.. 06/12/02