SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145 FOR...ERN NY...
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
VALID 161504Z - 161900Z
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH ACROSS ERN NY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
STRONG WINDS FROM SOME OF THE STORMS. CONFINED AREAL EXTENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE NEED FOR A WATCH.
TSTMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS SRN TIER AND CNTRL NY LAST HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM
SECTOR OVER ERN NY WHERE MODEST INSOLATION AND -20C AIR AT 500MB
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET MAX. DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER....DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHOULD SUSTAIN A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A FEW LOW-
TOPPED ROTATING/ORGANIZED CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KT ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN NY...AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH 19Z.
..CARBIN.. 06/16/02
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