SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250 FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472...473...474...
VALID 262119Z - 270000Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT. AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS
OF WRN AND CENTRAL ME.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER WW 474 CONTINUES TO
REMAIN INTENSE AS IT CROSSES THE WHITE MTNS OF NRN NH. AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN ME HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS IT MOVES OUT OF NRN NH. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING OVER NWRN ME AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
LEADING CONVECTION OVER WW 472 HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE
LAST HOUR. AIRMASS OVER SERN NY/WRN CT HAS BECOME STABILIZED...AND
AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL IN THIS AREA. SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NRN NJ/NYC METRO AREA
AND FAR ERN PA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
SOME BACKBUILDING POTENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER
ERN PA/NRN NJ.
ACROSS WW 473 NEWLY DEVELOPED CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ECENTRAL NY TO THE NE OF THE UCA AREA WILL
LIKELY BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO SRN VT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG
THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT OVER SWRN NY WILL MOVE INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF
WW 473 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..CROSBIE.. 06/26/02
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