SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380 FOR E-CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
VALID 151757Z - 152000Z
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 15/18-20Z. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
AT 15/18Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SSEWD THROUGH THE
ADIRONDACK MTNS OF NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL E-W ORIENTED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE BANDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAVE ALSO
BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS ERN NY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LESSENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION VALUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
BY 20Z IN VICINITY OF SRN ADIRONDACK MTNS AND CAPITAL DISTRICT OF
NY. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C
SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS. STORMS
WILL TRACK GENERALLY 280/30-35KT...PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ORIENTATION.
MODERATELY FAST STORM MOTIONS MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE.
..BANACOS.. 07/15/02
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