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Mesoscale Discussion 1380
MD 1380 graphic
   SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380 FOR E-CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL NEW
   ENGLAND
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 151757Z - 152000Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS E-CENTRAL NY AND WRN
   NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 15/18-20Z. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
   
   AT 15/18Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SSEWD THROUGH THE
   ADIRONDACK MTNS OF NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL E-W ORIENTED
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE BANDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAVE ALSO
   BEEN NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS ERN NY EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LESSENING CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION VALUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
   BY 20Z IN VICINITY OF SRN ADIRONDACK MTNS AND CAPITAL DISTRICT OF
   NY. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WET BULB
   ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C
   SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS. STORMS
   WILL TRACK GENERALLY 280/30-35KT...PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ORIENTATION.
   MODERATELY FAST STORM MOTIONS MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED
   AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE.  
   
   ..BANACOS.. 07/15/02
   
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