SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401 FOR ERN MT/WRN ND
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 192353Z - 200300Z
   
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IN PARTS OF
   ECNTRL/ERN MT AMIDST MODEST SWLY MID-LVL FLOW. A WW IS POSSIBLE IF
   STORMS INDICATE SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. 
   
   SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IN PORTIONS
   OF ECNTRL MT SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF JORDAN. SFC WIND
   FIELDS/STREAMLINES INDICATE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
   DEVELOPING BOTH IN EXTREME NERN MT AND ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER AREA.
   STRONGEST LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AREA IS PRESENTLY NORTH OF SHR INTO
   SRN MT TO THE EAST OF BILLINGS WHERE NNWLY WINDS MEET MODEST SSELY
   SFC FLOW. THE AIRMASS AMIDST THE SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER
   90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...LEADING TO 100MB MLCAPES
   AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS REGION OF CONVECTION
   IS ALSO LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-LVL IMPULSE RIDING NWD OUT
   OF UT/ID/WY AMIDST MODEST 20-30 SSWLY MID-LVL FLOW. 
   
   NEWEST RUC40 MODEL SHOWS MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING
   AS WRN CANADIAN CYCLONE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE REGION WHILE
   WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES CONTINUE TO RIDE NNEWD FROM THE ERN GREAT
   BASIN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN PARTS OF
   ECNTRL/ERN MT DESPITE RATHER WEAK SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO
   THE REGION. GIVEN ONLY A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND RATHER
   WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE WITH SOME STRONG
   WET MICROBURSTS AND AREAS OF LARGE HAIL AS FCST WBZ LEVELS SHOULD
   BE AROUND 11.5 KFT. STORMS COULD PROPAGATE INTO WRN ND LATER THIS
   EVENING. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 07/19/02