SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782 FOR NRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE...
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   
   VALID 232238Z - 240100Z
   
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES. 
   
   DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF WEST-EAST SURFACE BOUNDARY
   HAS RESULTED IN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000
   J/KG.  NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO 600 MB AND
   DCAPE VALUES OF 1600-1800 J/KG SUGGEST BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  LATEST RUC/ETA/AVN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   TX PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AREA WILL HAVE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING ON NOSE OF 30 KNOT 850 MB JET.  
   
   OTHER AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR
   INTERSECTION OF WEST-EAST FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 
   LONGEVITY OF STORMS IN THIS AREA IS LESS CERTAIN SINCE BEST DEEP
   ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF
   STORMS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.   
   
   ..CRAVEN.. 08/23/02