MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT TUE OCT 08 2002
   
   AREAS AFFECTED... S CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 081801Z - 081915Z
   
   UPDATED GRAPHIC
   
   ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS S
   CENTRAL TX...BUT TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST VWP OBSERVATIONS FROM EWX AND DFX SHOW MARGINALLY
   FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
   WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD
   COVERING CENTRAL/S CENTRAL TX...AND WHERE THIS RAIN-COOLED AIR
   MASS MERGES WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTED SYNOPTIC FRONT NEAR AUS.
   THOUGH SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...THE MOIST
   PROFILES/WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR DO
   NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO.  IN
   ADDITION...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75
   INCHES WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 10/08/2002
   
   
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