MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 PM CDT TUE OCT 22 2002
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 725...
   
   VALID 222234Z - 230030Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
   ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE
   VICINITY OF FORT STOCKTON...ON NOSE OF MORE MOIST AIR MASS
   RETURNING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  DEW POINTS IN
   THE MID 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE-BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER
   OF 1500 J/KG...WHICH IS ENHANCING UPDRAFTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH
   COOL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   WHILE MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR MASS IS A BIT LESS FARTHER NORTH
   ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS/THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
   PANHANDLE ...INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
   HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH MODERATE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
   MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
   ROTATION.
   
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
   EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/22/2002
   
   
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