MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2002
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS / OK PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
   
   VALID 240321Z - 241215Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP / MOVE INTO THE OK
   PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AND THEN PERSIST
   FOR SEVERAL HOURS THEREAFTER.  ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
   RELATIVELY LIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE NATURE
   OF PRECIPITATION SUGGESTS THAT SOME HEAVIER RATES OF .10" TO
   .20"/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   LATEST RADAR / LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE
   ATTM IN REGION OF ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED
   UPPER JETS.  EVENING RAOB FROM DDC AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE A NEUTRAL TO MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ELEVATED ABOVE A
   SHALLOW COLD LAYER -- 2400 FEET DEEP ACCORDING TO DDC RAOB.
   
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY BELOW FREEZING
   ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 2 TO 3 F FALLS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 4
   HOURS.	AS CONVECTION SPREADS SLOWLY ENEWD WITH TIME...EXPECT IT
   TO FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND
   INTO FAR SWRN KS...AND AS FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FURTHER NORTH
   TOWARD DDC / GCK AS COLD LAYER DEEPENS WITH TIME.  MODELS SUGGEST
   THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
   OK PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE OK / KS BORDER -- WHICH SEEMS
   REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 10/24/2002
   
   
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