MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2002
   
   AREAS AFFECTED... SERN NM/SWRN	AND CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 240652Z - 240945Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT
   FOR LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 1000Z OVER A BROAD
   AREA FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS.	A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.
   
   PROFILER DATA FROM WHITE SANDS NM AND JAYTON TX INDICATE STRONG
   0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 60 KNOTS...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER POTENT SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY FROM
   NORTHWEST MEXICO AT THIS TIME...AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED
   DRAMATICALLY IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  VAD WIND/PROFILER DATA
   INDICATES THAT 850 MB FLOW  OVER WEST TEXAS HAS VEERED FROM
   EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHENED TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH...RESULTING IN
   INCREASING POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION JUST ABOVE COOL BOUNDARY
   LAYER.
   
   RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
   OF  7000-10000 FEET AGL...POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL WILL PERSIST.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE
   WHETHER THREAT AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SIGNIFICANT OR
   CONCENTRATED TO WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   ..CRAVEN.. 10/24/2002
   
   
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