MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2002
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM/SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 726...
   
   VALID 241011Z - 241215Z
   
   STRONGEST SUPERCELL HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST HOUR AND IS NOW OVER
   NORTHERN WINKLER COUNTY TX.  HOWEVER...2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
   FALLS CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IN WARM ADVECTION
   REGIME.  850 MB FLOW HAS VEERED FURTHER AND STRENGTHENED TO 30
   KNOTS AT MIDLAND IN THE PAST HOUR.
   
   GOES SOUNDER LI DATA AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT BEST
   INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA.  SINCE WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC 250 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATE
   STRONGEST CVA WILL BE CROSSING INTO THE MARFA/DAVIS MOUNTAINS
   AREA IN ABOUT 2 HOURS...POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA
   EXISTS.
   
   
   ..CRAVEN.. 10/24/2002
   
   
   32950309 32940136 31270116 29600096 29610262 29600429
   31270455 32940481