MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 PM CST MON OCT 28 2002
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 731...
   
   VALID 290545Z - 290745Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS SERN TX. TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS SWRN LA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
   RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS
   THEY TRAIN NEWD.
   
   COASTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INLAND INTO SERN TX AND EXTENDS NEWD
   THROUGH SRN LA. WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THIS BOUNDARY
   JUST E OF HOUSTON WITH AN AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS FROM EXTREME
   SERN TX THROUGH SWRN LA. THOUGH THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG OVER
   SERN TX...THE HOUSTON VWP DATA SHOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN
   TO VEER TO SWLY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW HAS BACKED AND SHEAR HAS
   INCREASED OVER SWRN LA WITHIN AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS E OF SURFACE
   LOW. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PRESENCE OF COASTAL BOUNDARY
   SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
   TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE EWD ALONG BOUNDARY INTO SWRN LA. RECENT
   RADAR DATA ALSO SHOW BOW ECHO STORM WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING
   WIND OVER SERN TX MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KT INTO JASPER AND ORANGE
   COUNTIES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/29/2002
   
   
   29319620 30119620 30799425 31479230 30689230 29889230
   29209425 28529620