MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN NY...WRN PA...NRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 102322Z - 110145Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE
   REST OF ERN OH...EXTREME WRN NY...WRN PA AND PORTIONS OF NRN WV.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 2-3 MILLIBAR PRESSURE FALLS
   SPREADING INTO WRN NY/PA AS OF 23Z.  INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL
   INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   SUSTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  AREA HODOGRAPHS ARE EXHIBITING
   STRONG LOW LEVEL CURVATURE...WITH 0-3 SRH ON THE ORDER OF 300-500
   M2/S2.	HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 11/10/2002
   
   
   40488174 41908069 42477908 43287889 42997814 41777856
   39518004 39498213