MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2252
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST TUE DEC 03 2002
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND WRN OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 031730Z - 032230Z
   
   A CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6
   HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. BY
   03/22Z...AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PNC TO 10 S
   END TO 40 S GAG TO AMA WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGE FROM FREEZING
   RAIN TO SNOW. A COLD RAIN WILL BECOME FREEZING RAIN THIS
   AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES...IN A 40-50 NM
   BAND FROM SWO TO CSM AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR INTO THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE OKC METRO AREA
   BEGINNING AROUND 19Z.
   
   ON THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE...STRONGEST UVV ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH
   850-700MB WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE NEWD FROM WRN TX OVER
   SPREADING STEADY PRECIPITATION INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE...FRONTOGENETIC
   FORCING HAS RESULTED IN AN E-W MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION BAND
   EXTENDING FROM NEAR GUY TO END TO 30 NE TUL. THIS BAND WILL
   SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD ALONG ITS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE
   THAT THIS LINE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REPRESENT THE NWD EXTENT OF
   THE PRECIPITATION.
   
   WHILE STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/UVV OCCURS...NELY
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A COLD...DRY
   LOW-LEVEL AIRSTREAM INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA RESULTING IN A SLOW
   SWD MIGRATION OF THE 32F ISOTHERM/WET BULB TEMPERATURE LINE
   ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN/CENTRAL OK...AIDED ALSO BY
   EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS. ETA AND RUC THERMAL PROFILES BECOME
   CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN NWRN OK/TX PANHANDLE...WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ALLOWING RAIN TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
   IN MUCH OF CENTRAL/WRN OK...AS FREEZING LINE MIGRATES SWD. SMALL
   SURFACE BASED SUBFREEZING AREA RELATIVE TO ABOVE FREEZING LAYER
   ALOFT SUGGESTS FREEZING RAIN WILL DOMINATE OVER SLEET IN
   CENTRAL/WRN OK. INITIALLY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY LIMIT
   ICING TO ELEVATED SURFACES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 12/03/2002
   
   
   35130148 35390085 35799965 36079850 36229779 36539685 
   
   35490153 36070142 36370117 36469956 36509762 36509630
   36419616 35889618 35459703 35149788 34899894 34700004
   34800100 35040144 35500152