MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CST THU JAN 02 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE AR
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 020916Z - 021315Z
   
   LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK...CONTINUING INTO THE MID MORNING
   HOURS.
   
   COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT RADAR
   TRENDS SUPPORT MODEL PROGS...WHICH ALL SUGGEST STRENGTHENING
   MID/UPPER FORCING NEAR CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
   ARKANSAS.  AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ON
   SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW... WHICH IS PROGGED
   TO MIGRATE FROM THE OZARKS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY MID
   MORNING...CONCENTRATED STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WILL
   SHIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY 15Z.
   DYNAMIC COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY IN
   THE VICINITY OF THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS...WHERE OROGRAPHY MAY
   ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS...BEFORE HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN A
   NARROW SWATH ACROSS THE BATESVILLE/JONESBORO AREAS.
   MOISTURE/LIFT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AVERAGE SNOW RATES UP
   TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/02/2003
   
   
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