MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CST FRI JAN 03 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CT RI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 031737Z - 032130Z
   
   VERY HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE...
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CT AND PERHAPS INTO NRN RI
   OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   
   INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 21Z. THIS LIFT WAS
   OCCURRING WITHIN A DEEP SATURATED AIRMASS WHERE THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST A VERY
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH FROM BOTH
   DEPOSITION AND AGGREGATION. INCREASINGLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL
   BAROCLINICITY WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SUGGESTS A SHARP TRANSITION
   ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL EXIST JUST INLAND FROM THE MARITIME
   INFLUENCE OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
   WATERS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
   ZONE SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE MESOSCALE FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS DUE TO
   LATENT HEAT EFFECTS AND SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF CT AND PORTIONS OF RI.
   
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/03/2003
   
   
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