MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL VA/CNTRL NC/CNTRL AND ERN SC
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 041004Z - 041300Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND DAMAGE EXISTS AS SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSES
   ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.
   
   NARROW FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE LEE SLOPES
   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND IS ADVANCING EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD  AROUND 40 KT.  THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   THE MID MORNING HOURS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
   HAS BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED PAST FEW HOURS.  WEAK CONVECTIVE
   LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE NC AND
   COLUMBIA SC AREAS BY AROUND 12Z...THEN INTO THE RALEIGH-DURHAM NC
   AND FLORENCE SC AREAS BY 15Z.
   
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED ABOVE
   MOIST STABLE OR NEAR NEUTRAL SURFACE LAYER...AND SUGGEST MINIMAL
   LIKELIHOOD OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WIND
   FIELD AT AND ABOVE 850 MB.  HOWEVER...DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE
   GRADIENT NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...SURFACE WINDS ARE STRONG AND
   GUSTY...AND MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.  
   
   
   ..KERR.. 02/04/2003
   
   
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