MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0902 AM CST FRI FEB 14 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SWRN MN...NRN AND NWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 141502Z - 142100Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY...WITH
   POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT ICING POSSIBLE.	HOURLY RATES WILL AVERAGE
   UP TO 0.05" THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
   CHANGING TO SNOW.
   
   LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA....WITH
   RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SHIELD OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN OVER SERN SD.
    A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS HELPING TO FOCUS LIFT IN THIS REGION
   AS WELL.  PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SWRN MN AS
   FORCING PERSISTS AND LOW LEVELS SATURATE WELL BELOW FREEZING.
   
   06Z ETA RUN PROBABLE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS SHOW
   PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME.  WARMER THAN
   FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN EXTREME NERN NEBRASKA IS CAUSING RAIN
   RATHER THAN FREEZING RAIN...AND SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTH OF LOW
   LEVEL WAA WAS UNDER FORECAST.  ACCORDING TO THE ALGORITHMS
   FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HON AREA AROUND 20Z AND
   IN FSD AROUND 00Z AS COLUMN GRADUALLY COOLS.  SNOW IS EXPECTED
   MAINLY N OF A HON TO BKX LINE ALL DAY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 02/14/2003
   
   
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