MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0912 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 4...
   
   VALID 150312Z - 150515Z
   
   THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
   TSTMS MOVING INTO WRN AND SRN PORTIONS WW 004.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
   COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON MEXICO INTO WW 004.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
   ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OUT OF NRN MEXICO
   --PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOCALIZED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
   OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY.  THE AIRMASS OVER THE WATCH AREA
   REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
   REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER  DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE WIND
   SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
   
   LATEST ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   AS A RESULT OF DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS
   UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL
   JET MAXIMUM TRANSLATING ACROSS THE TX COAST.  THIS ASCENT MAY
   HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WW WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   
   ..MEAD/GOSS.. 02/15/2003
   
   
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