MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LA / SERN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL
PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 160144Z - 160445Z
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SERN LA AND SERN MS
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...UNLESS THREAT
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY...NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED AS AREA
NOT INCLUDED IN WW'S 7 AND 8 IS LIMITED.
LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW MOIST / MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST / LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
ATTM. WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INDICATED BY MOB WSR-88D...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING. SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL VORT MAX / JET STREAK AND APPROACH OF UPPER
60F SURFACE DEW POINTS. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS WW NOT
NECESSARY ATTM...THOUGH AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN ANY
FURTHER WW/S LATER THIS EVENING.
..GOSS.. 02/16/2003
31258665 30778657 30308715 30038874 29048903 29318988
30688930 31248847
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