MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / SRN OH / WV / VA / NC
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 160512Z - 161015Z
   
   EXPECT BOTH INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTRY MIXED
   PRECIPITATION RATES THRU 16/10Z. A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT IS
   IMMINENT ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS.
   
   AMIDST CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING
   MID-LVL TROUGH...850MB LO CNTR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN THE TN
   VALLEY REGION. RECENT IR/RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM THIS TREND AS AN
   EXPANSIVE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
   ADVECTS NNEWD FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION. BOTH ETA/GFS AGREE IN
   STRENGTHENING THE 850 LOW CNTR EAST OF PAH AS WAA 40-45 KT WAA
   REGIME INCREASES THRU THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
   INCREASE THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION YIELDING
   A WINTRY MESS.
   
   BOTH ETA/GFS CONCUR WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
   FROM SRN OH...EWD THRU MUCH OF CNTRL WV...INTO SWRN/WRN VA...EWD
   THRU MUCH OF SRN/SCNTRL VA AS WELL AS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
   AREA.  
   MOST RECENT ETA ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS HEAVIEST WATER EQUIVALENT
   AMOUNTS WILL SURGE FROM ECNTRL TN...NNEWD INTO SERN/SRN KY...INTO
   SCNTRL WV BY 16/09-12Z. THE AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL
   STRETCH FROM SRN/SERN OH...EWD THRU NCNTRL/NRN WV...INTO NRN VA.
   PLEASE REFER TO WEB GRAPHIC FOR PRECIITATION TYPE LAYOUT.
   
   ..NADEN.. 02/16/2003
   
   
   40238094 40177948 39917854 39197746 38837698 38617643
   37977628 37177691 36447773 35717963 35618000 35548083
   35558176 35918249 36328255 36868228 37538227 37728253
   37838308 37778354 37378399 37098431 37018484 36998527
   37108565 37488584 38368554 38668497 39028407 39618314
   39928242 40038177