MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY/NRN WV/SRN OH/WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 162341Z - 170245Z
   
   SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
   MUCH OF SOUTH-CNTRL OH THROUGH 03Z. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO
   OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
   LUK-PKB-MGW LINE.
   
   PRIMARY MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS THIS EVENING NEAR THE
   CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
   LIFT...AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EAST OF PRIMARY
   MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT
   WITHIN COLD SATURATED AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH
   AT LEAST 03Z. DEEP SLY FLOW CHANNELED BY WRN SLOPES OF THE
   APPALACHIANS HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT WARMING IN THE 850-750MB
   LAYER FOR PCPN TO FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AS FAR NORTH
   AS PKB. HOWEVER...DEEP ELY CURRENT OF VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
   THE NORTH OF THIS AREA...FROM PA WWD ACROSS OH...AND THIS SHOULD
   MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW
   TO CONTINUE.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 02/16/2003
   
   
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