MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/SERN PA...MD...NRN VA...NJ...DE
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 170004Z - 170430Z
   
   AT LEAST 2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY THRU THE EVENING HOURS
   IN PARTS OF PA...NRN VA..NJ...AND MD. 
   
   WV/IR IMAGERY INDICATES THE NNEWD MOVING SWATH OF GULF OF MEXICO
   MOISTURE IS SHOWING INDICATIONS OF THE FORMATION OF A DRY SLOT
   LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A 70-75 KT MID-LVL SPEED MAX.
   PRESENTLY...THE AREA OF COOLEST CLOUD TOPS IS LOCATED FROM WV
   NNEWD INTO PA WITH THE DRY SLOT REGION MOVING FROM SC/NC INTO WRN
   VA.
   
   PRESENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW STRONGEST BANDING FOR THE
   HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SRN NJ...SERN PA...NRN
   DE...MD...INTO NRN VA. DESPITE HAVING THE AREA OF COOLEST CLOUDS
   TOPS QUICKLY HEADING NNEWD AND MID LEVEL DRYING....OBSERVATIONS
   AND MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE CONTINUATION OF A HEAVY SNOW
   EVENT FOR THESE AREAS THRU THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS THE RESULT
   OF INCREASING 850MB ENELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC / 50-55 KT BY
   17/03Z / AS WELL AS SIGNS OF MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THE
   ETA/RUC/AND GFS ALL AGREE IN PLACING THESE AREAS IN THE HEAVIEST
   SNOWFALL AXIS THRU 17/0430Z.  
   
   ..NADEN.. 02/17/2003
   
   
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   39867926 40477863 40717785 40627668 40477573 40257487
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