MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0199
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CST THU MAR 06 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN GA AND WRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 30...
   
   VALID 060816Z - 060915Z
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED TSTMS MOVING
   ENEWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF GA AND SC TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM
   FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N OF CSG TO N OF MCN TO AROUND CAE. 
   AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE FRONT REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
   SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST THAT WARM NOSE NEAR 700 MB ON THE 00Z NEW ORLEANS
   SOUNDING HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AND IS INHIBITING
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
   
   ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT
   ACROSS	NRN PORTIONS OF WW030 WHERE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING IS
   OCCURRING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ELEVATED ENVIRONMENT WITH
   MUCAPES AOA 500 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WILL
   LIKELY LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT...STRONG WIND SHEAR THROUGH
   CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT
   WITH THE ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS FAR NRN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA.
   
   THE CHANCE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS AND INHERENT WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONTINUED NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT
   TO CLOSER PROXIMITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM NRN AL ACROSS NRN
   GA INTO NRN SC.  MESOANALYSIS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT COLD POOL
   CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NRN GA/NWRN SC IS INHIBITING NWD
   MOVEMENT OF FRONT ATTM.  IF SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM E OF
   MGM TO JUST E OF LGC CAN INTENSIFY...THEN DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL GA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/06/2003
   
   
   33168420 34038420 34418222 34808025 33938025 33068025
   32678222 32298420