MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 AM CST TUE MAR 11 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL KS AND NORTH CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 111117Z - 111415Z
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER BETWEEN AVK AND P28 WILL MOVE NEWD AT
20-25KT AND PROGRESS OVER SUBFREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-MORNING.
AT 1115Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OK/KS
BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION AND LEADING EDGE OF
GULF MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING PRIMARILY IN THE 850-750MB LAYER.
ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG IN THE
AREA...AND COMBINED WITH UVV FROM WARM ADVECTION...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 26-32F
RANGE...AND SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS
MORNING.
..BANACOS.. 03/11/2003
36169761 37019889 37359898 37719727 36829614
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