MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0224
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0836 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 130236Z - 130400Z
   
   TSTMS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE BACKBUILDING INTO PORTIONS
   OF NCNTRL AND CNTRL OK AND ANOTHER SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
   
   SRN PERIPHERY OF WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUES TO
   TRANSLATE ACROSS OK AND KS ATTM.  RECENT VISUAL OBSERVATIONS AND
   TWIN LAKES RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT CBS ARE DEVELOPING SWWD INTO
   CNTRL OK... ALONG A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN SWLY
   LLJ AXIS.  VWP SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS AND PERHAPS A SUPERCELL.  LARGE HAIL
   WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ON
   THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM.  DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE A THREAT...
   ESPECIALLY IF ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. 
   
   THE ANTICIPATED MCS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD INTO CNTRL OK
   DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING...SIMILAR TO LATEST 00 UTC
   RUC40...BRINGING A SEVERE THREAT TO THE OKC METRO AREA EWD TO
   ABOUT MLC.
   
   
   ..RACY.. 03/13/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
   
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