MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CST THU MAR 13 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN...WRN NC...VA...ERN WV...WRN MD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 131855Z - 132100Z
A WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RECENT VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW TOPPED CONVECTION
INSTIGATING TO THE EAST OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMIDST A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS IN MUCH OF VA...ERN WV...INTO MD. ERE CENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW IN WRN VA WITH A PRESSURE FALL
CENTER IN MUCH OF CNTRL VA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S/LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW
60S...SFCOA FIELDS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AS INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM SC/NC IS
EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF ENTRANCE
REGION TO MID-UPPER LVL SPEED MAXIMUM...EXPECTED INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION...ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...AND FCST 0-6KM WINDS
FROM 45-55 KTS...SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.
..NADEN.. 03/13/2003
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...
36387949 34368176 34758511 36288373 38168126 39817828
39307689 37667703
|