MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CST MON MAR 17 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL KS...WRN/CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 48...
   
   VALID 172047Z - 172245Z
   
   STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
   WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   HAS SUPPORTED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE
   DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  20Z SURFACE DATA INDICATED DRY
   LINE ALONG THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER...WEST OF GAGE INTO
   THE CHILDRESS  AREA...BEFORE CURVING INTO AREAS EAST OF ABILENE.
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH
   POST FRONTAL WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 30 KT. 
   AS THIS FRONT MERGES WITH DRY LINE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/WESTERN
   OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
   OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WEST/NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY INTO
   AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE
   INTO A SQUALL LINE... WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/17/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
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